Connahs Quay — 1407 MW Gas Station — Turn-Up Tracker

Turn-Up Tracker

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BM revenue only: All figures are gross Balancing Mechanism revenue. They do not include commercial or tolling revenues from wholesale market volumes, and do not deduct the cost of gas and carbon, nor the variable costs of operating, ramping, stopping and starting plant. Data: Elexon BMRS Insights API (EBOCF indicative settlement cashflows, bid volumes, Physical Notifications). Constraint methodology: For each half-hour settlement period, we calculate the wind bid fraction — the share of total bid-down volume from wind generators. This fraction is applied to gas offer cashflows to estimate the constraint-driven portion. This is a lower-bound estimate: it captures constraints visible through wind curtailment but does not account for constraints driven by other factors. Cross-validation: Our estimates are consistent with the independent Wasted Wind tracker, which reports £2.07bn in total constraint costs for the same period. Their methodology calculates “the cost of buying the same amount of energy from other sources” using Elexon settlement data — covering all replacement fuel types, not just gas. Their total includes £495m for paying wind farms to switch off and £1.57bn for replacement turn-up across all fuels. Our gas-only constraint figure (£1.49bn) accounts for 95% of their total turn-up cost, confirming that gas dominates constraint replacement. The remaining 5% is primarily pumped storage, with small contributions from batteries and biomass. FPN:Final Physical Notifications represent each station's commercial wholesale market commitment; BM activity is additional to this.

Connahs Quay — 1407 MW Gas Station — Turn-Up Tracker